Incidencia de las variables económicas en la cartera vencida de los bancos estatales Banecuador y Banco del Pacífico, periodo 2021 – 2023

Abstract

Overdue portfolio is the financial obligations granted in favor of a debtor that have not been fulfilled at the date of payment and when their level is high, it causes financial problems, especially for banks. Most banks have overdue portfolios, and this default depends on several macro and microeconomic variables that influence debtors by reducing their capacity to pay. The objective of this research was to determine the impact of some macro and microeconomic variables on the volume of non-performing loans of state-owned banks such as BanEcuador and Banco del Pacífico to establish the existing differences. To achieve this, historical values of the variables up to 2023 were compiled, and a least squares linear regression was performed using IBM-SPSS 20 software, obtaining the coefficients of each variable and their significance within the study as comparative parameters. The coefficients of each variable were established for each of the banks determined, and the respective comparison was made, finding that the gross domestic product, interest rates, unemployment rate and inflation have an influence on the level of nonperforming loans, while the consumer price index variable was excluded from the analysis because it is parallel to inflation. It is concluded that interest rates are the variable with the greatest impact on the non-performing loan portfolio, and the inflation variable behaved differently in each of the banks according to the type of clients they handle.