Análisis estadístico de la delincuencia en actos flagrantes mediante modelos de procesos puntuales espaciales en la ciudad de Riobamba, 2015-2019

Abstract

The objective of this study was to characterize the criminal behavior in flagrant acts from Riobamba city within twenty-four hours after the act, through models of specific spatial processes, for which the information was obtained in the Unidad de Estudios Jurimétricos y Estadística Judicial in the Dirección Provincial del Consejo de la Judicatura de Chimborazo in the period 2015-2019. Taking descriptive statistics, 73% were of Ecuadorian nationality and the highest frequency of crimes were serious with 1,528 detainees. The characterization of criminal acts was carried out through the models of specific processes, where the contrast of the test for Complete Spatial Randomness (CSR) based on quadrants and distances showed that the p-value is less than Alpha of 0.05, which means, the acts flagrant are not completely random from the spatial point of view, also applying the k and g functions estimated homogeneous and inhomogeneous indicated the existence of an aggregate process. The areas with the greatest influence of crimes in Riobamba city were determined to the localities such as parks, shopping centers, hospitals, and clinics, giving an interval from 17 to 107 detainees in that period. The rates were estimated per unit of study and the neighborhoods were taken from the urban area and the Licán parish, the result was that the neighborhoods: San José de Tapi and Municipal had the highest rate with 17.4 and 11.8 flagrant crimes per 100 inhabitants. It is concluded that the analysis of the behavior pattern of flagrant crimes is not completely random, they are added following a non-homogeneous process, so further studies are recommended to improve good decision-making for the common welfare of citizens.